Date: Janurary 21, 2008 (Mon.) 16:00-18:00 PM
Venue: E207, 2nd floor of East Building, CSEAS
Presentation:
Hiroshi Matsumoto (Executive Vice-President for Research and Finance, Kyoto University)
Title:"Glocal energy issues: Toward an expansion of sustainable humanosphere"
Iwao Matsuoka (Senior Adviser, JITI)
Title:"Current issues on energy and global waming"
Compared with the ozone hole (Freon regulations), it is easy to grasp the difficulties of the global warming issue: The ozone hole exists, and it has been possible to create policies in response from a scientific point of view, such as by reducing the use of refrigerants and gas, which are seen to be the cause. Global warming is a future problem, and because it involves virtually everything that humans do, is not just a scientific, but also a political issue. Because its effects do not surface where the damage is made, although the introduction of methods such as Emission Trading and the Clean Development Mechanism (CDM) at an international level are possible, if some countries or regions continue to discharge emissions, it will still affect the entire planet. The Kyoto Protocol (1997) was adopted to confront this issue, and includes “flexible mechanisms” (economic instruments). Of significance are the numerical targets (First commitment period: 2008 to 2012. Five percent reduction by Annex 1 countries) and economic instruments (such as Emission Trading and CDM).
If we consider CDM in the transportation sphere, it is not just CO2 from cars that affect the environment, but also NOx and SOx. Developed countries can probably use technologies to reduce the amount of gases being emitted, but then the issue of the dissemination of the technologies to developing countries arises. Mostly businesses, and not governments own the technologies, and it is unrealistic to think that they will provide them to developing countries (or rival companies in those countries) without compensation. There are many more related issues, such as safety guarantees and the improvement of traffic, and it is not a simple issue of the reduction of gas emissions. More comprehensive solutions are sought. From the perspective of CDM transport methodology as a comprehensive policy, the experience in developed countries can be utilized in developing countries, and there is a need for international mechanism to assist the policy.
(Matsumoto)
Population and economic growth rates are used to estimate increase in demand for food and energy/resource consumption. If the population in developed countries remains stagnant for the next fifty years, even without any change in the amount of energy/resources they require, and if we assume that the population in developing countries will rise from the current five to nine billion and that they will require three times the amount of energy/resources, the current consumer lifestyle energy needs of 15 billion living tons can be calculated to rise to 37 billion. How to provide this while dealing with environmental concerns is an important question. Even if population growth in developing countries remains at its current rate, people in developed countries will have to reduce their standard of living by around 40%.
There is a limit to the number of years we have left of our main energy and mineral resources. Some precious metals will be exhausted within this century, unless new sources are unearthed or they are recycled. There are different estimates as to when oil will run out, but 40 to 50 years sounds appropriate. Keeping this in mind and combining estimates regarding population and energy/resources, the limit will be reached as early as 2020. To protect the humanosphere for future humankind, we must supply more renewable energy and food that is environmentally friendly, and reuse our resources.
If energy is a way for a glocal, sustainable humanosphere to expand, then the development of new energy is of particular importance, such as solar and wind generated electricity, bioethanol and fuel cells, which impose a smaller burden on the environment. Although solar and wind generated electricity have unlimited energy source and generally only emit carbon dioxide in the initial state of installation, the energy source is unevenly distributed and unstable and costs to generate electricity are high. Bioethanol is a renewable energy source and if combusted does not increase the amount of carbon in the earth’s surface (it simply recycles), but even if, for example, we cultivate all our land to produce raw material for ethanol, the ethanol produced will still not be able to replace the amount of gasoline currently being consumed. If we consider the characteristics of new energy sources and the amount of oil consumed in the following ways, we can imagine a scenario where the energy currently taken from oil is taken from these alternatives: bioethanol for transportation; solar and wind to generate electricity for variables; and nuclear power and space solar power to generate electricity for base use.