Date:September 22, 2008 (Mon.) 16：00～18：00PM
Venue:E207, East Buiding, CSEAS
Presentation:Kaoru Sugihara (Professor, CSEAS)
Commentator:
Ishihara Keiichi (Professor, Graduate School of Energy Science, Kyoto University)
Fukao Yoko (Associate Professor, Graduate School of Economics, Osaka University)
Dr. Kaoru Sugihara discussed the future of industrial development and resource utilization based on statistical data on energy consumption at the national level and other issues. First, he explained the process of industrialization and change of energy consumption, drawing a contrast between the West and Asia. While the industrial development of western countries during the mid 20th century led to a major increase of consumption of commercial energy (coal, oil, natural gas, and electricity, with the main resource at the time being coal) and a decrease of non-commercial energy, Asian countries did not experience a large decrease of non-commercial energy during their industrialization process, and their per capita energy consumption remained relatively small.
Next, the process of Japan’s industrialization was reviewed as a case study. In Japan, land was scarce but wood and water resources were abundant, and in that sense Japan was not a resource-poor country. In the first half of the 20th century, it became an importer of resources as it switched to a coal-based economy, where industrialization was pursued through an intensification of resource utilization. Japan’s economic development was supported by so-called “oil triangle”, the trade relations among the West, Middle East, and Japan, in particular the export of products to the West. In the present situation where oil prices are skyrocketing, it is difficult for countries in Southeast Asia to do the same. In addition to it, the weight of alternative fuels such as biomass cannot be expected to increase rapidly. Therefore, in their development paths, these societies will have to look toward an efficient way of using energy: using it intensively and using diverse sources.
Next, Dr. Keiichi Ishihara reported on energy productivity (referred to as “energy efficiency” in the Sugihara report) in Vietnam. He showed the environmental Kuznets curve and demonstrated, based on an analysis of the I/O table, that in Vietnam, which is undergoing industrialization, energy consumption is large in the cement industry and agricultural sector (which uses chemical fertilizers and includes the chemical industry) in particular and that the energy productivity is low.
Dr. Yuko Fukao reported on a study of the recovery of water and greenery in the Huangtu Plateau, in which she is involved, and the present situation of the area. She argued that although there are abundant coal resources, prices have been increasing rapidly in recent years, putting pressure on the livelihoods of people involved in agriculture. and thus the condition of migrant workers who have brought in cash income for this area and supported industrial production of the coastal area will be reformed at the national level.
From the floor, there was a question on the definition of commercial energy. Comments concentrated on Sugihara’s argument that one of the reasons for the successful transformation of energy consumption was that Japan was blessed with resources and a well-developed resource-saving economy. It was confirmed that the ability to respond effectively was a special feature of Japan. Also, a question was raised on how resource-saving technology could be spread to countries without incentives for such technology. On the Fukao paper, there was discussion about the dilemma of economic development and the sustainability of agriculture in China.
Thus, in this workshop, the historical paths of economic development were reviewed and, based on this examination, the situation faced by different countries within the process of economic development was demonstrated. It can be said that through this workshop the tasks involved in searching for a development path based on sustainable humanosphere were clarified.
(Shuhei Kimura)