Date: 27 January 2010, 16:00-
Place: Middle-sized meeting room (Room.no. 332) on the third floor of Inamori Memorial Hall
Speaker: Dr. Attachai JINTRAWET (CSEAS Visiting Research Fellow, Chiang Mai University)
Topics:
1. "A Decision Support System Research and Development Network for Agriculture and Natural Resources Management: A TRF-DSS Experience"*
*2. Climate change and rice production in Thailand.*
*1. "A Decision Support System Research and Development Network for Agriculture and Natural Resources Management: A TRF-DSS Experience"*
*Summary*
Agricultural and natural resources are the foundation of social and economic development in Thailand since her first national plan in 1960s. With un-integrated utilization, agricultural productivity as well as natural resources rapidly deteriorated, leading to multi-dimensional problems. The Thailand Research Fund (TRF) established a Decision Support Systems (DSS) research and development network (TRF-DSS) in 2002 to address issues of agriculture and natural resources management problems. Using a "systems" approach, a problem is viewed from the DSS framework, allow researchers and users to draw and integrate key components as well as to define database and modelbase management systems.
This talk describes the TRF-DSS research and development network, consists of 14 universities and one line agencies in Thailand. Between 2002-2010, more than twenty DSS tools being developed and used by users at various levels, ranging from policy makers and the provincial and local government levels, performing short and long term planning and management to improve conditions. I would hope that the TRF-DSS network provides a platform for multi-disciplinary teams to tackle issues at various levels.
*2. Climate change and rice production in Thailand.*
*Summary*
Rice-based cropping systems in Thailand is one of the sensitive areas which would be influenced by change in climate characteristic and pattern, which induced by global warming. During my stay at CSEAS-Kyoto, CropDSS shell will be used to link the CSM-CERES-Rice model version 4.0.2.0 with future climate scenarios from the PRECIS regional climate model (RCM) to downscale the ECHAM4 Global Climate Model (GCM) for Thailand. I am also collaborating with Prof. TACHIKAWA team (of the Hydrology and water resources research laboratoty, Department of Civil and Earth Resources Engineering in Katsura campus) to use the MRI climate model outputs with CropDSS shell. I have met with the team at Katsura campus on December 17, 2010 and on January 24, 2011, we have organized a the first small technical meeting at CSEAS in room 107.
The data from ECHAM4 Global Circulation Model under SRES A2 and B2 scenarios, downscaled to higher resolution to project the climate during 1980-2099. A slightly decline in main season rice yields were predicted under all production systems before 2040s period and drastically decreased after 2040s period. However, one should bear in mind that the predicted amount of rainfall and the relationship of more incidents of insect pests.
Finally, the CropDSS shell and the CSM-CERES-rice model may be used to evaluate alternative adaptive production strategies under future climate scenarios projected by the ECHAM4 GCM in Thailand and other countries, providing that data sets are available for model testing and evaluation.